Some believe that the Mayan calendar forecasts the end of the world in 2012, but this year promises to have much adventure for VITA technologies. Here are
10 trends to watch unfold in 2012:
1VPX revenues are projected by industry analysts to match VME in 2012. The numbers are rapidly approaching the crossover. New product announcements featuring VPX are in the majority. Not all systems need the performance of VPX so VME design wins continue, but design wins featuring 3U and 6U VPX products are becoming more common, raising expectations that this is the year.
2Military programs will take a hit in 2012. Upgrades will be the safe harbor, but they don’t offer much opportunity for companies looking to enter the market, as these opportunities usually go to the incumbent supplier. At the same time, defense programs look to reduce manpower costs by using more automation and robotics, especially in unmanned vehicles of all types. 2012 promises to be a tough year but could offer great opportunities for companies positioned well with products and business strategies to address this automation.
3Small form factor fever rages on in 2012. Making products smaller while not giving in on capability and performance promises to open up new markets. VITA has four small form factor working groups in play. Which will win is yet to be determined, but we may get a clearer picture by the end of the year. Count 3U VPX in this mix as well.
4FPGAs are poised to take over the majority of I/O responsibility on single board computers. They offer a cost/flexibility ratio never before possible, and it only promises to get better. FMC technology makes the use of FPGAs very attractive as board supplies look for ways to create niches for their expertise.
5Intel just bought the InfiniBand product lines and certain related assets from QLogic. InfiniBand dominates the storage connectivity markets, but does this acquisition mean a more prominent role for InfiniBand in critical embedded systems? Will we start to see the dot specifications for VPX and other VITA technologies fill in the InifinBand gaps? 10 Gigabit Ethernet is not going to give any ground any time soon.
6Optical interconnects have been discussed for decades, but technology breakthroughs combined with eventual approach to copper bandwidth limitations make even more critical the search for optical interconnects that are cost effective and practical. 2012 promises to show some of the first VPX products at least allowing optics to be passed through the backplane using VITA 66 blind mate optical interconnect.
7With all the focus on small form factors, will we see proposals for smaller mezzanines for blade boards appear in a working group? The technical community has been discussing options, but none of them seem to ever gain any traction. 2012 could be the year we see some serious cards get played.
8PowerPC processors held the dominant spot on VME single board computers for many years. But Intel architecture processors have since taken over the top spot. Can the mistakes made with Power Architecture be corrected in time to regain some of that market share? QorIQ with AltiVec makes a return in 2012. Keep an eye on the progress.
9ARM processors are everywhere. With more than 200 licensees, it is impossible to find a processor supplier who does not offer an ARM option. Multicore offerings start to put ARM near the high end of performance. Many I/O boards use some type of ARM processor. Pair these with the low power capability and the multitude of processor options and it becomes only a matter of time before ARM shows up as the primary processor in single board computers.
10 Reliability is a key part of the definition of
“critical embedded systems.” The work done by the Reliability Community has received high marks within the DoD. MIL-HDBK-217 needs updating, and VITA 51 can help. Will the suppliers start to use the guidance of VITA 51 to define the reliability levels of their products? Many in the user community would like to see that happen in 2012.